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US default (80%-90% of happening now)

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#1 by Darkstar2 » Tue May 23, 2023 21:00

This should be the main focus right now - few people even know what's at stake and what are the implications, but right now the odds of a default have gone from 10% up to a staggering 90%. This is what happens when politics and rivalry take over common sense - The fact that BOTH sides, who are supposed to serve the better interest of the entire nation not their own personal agendas, are willing to let the world economy go into a Great Great Depression is pathetic.

The US dollar will lose up to 50% of its value in the next month, 65-75% odds of this happening - Stock markets including Dow,NASDAQ and S&P set to drop more than 64% of their value in the next quarter, there is potential for Canadian dollar to be worth more than the US dollar eventually - So in light of a looking crisis that will crush all banks, all businesses, cost millions of jobs and cause bankruptcy of a currency and nation, which will take at least 50-100 years to recover from, what will happen to this site and all other US based eCommerce online if the USD will no longer be viable ?

I guess this is the end of all GPT and marketing research as we know it and the rise of more scams online and offline.

I think ALL Americans in 2024 should STAY HOME and not bother voting, if EVERYONE does the same both in Canada and US, this will send a clear message - At this point in time I do not believe ANY party would be worthy of votes, if BOTH of them are willing to manufacture a crisis that will ROB 350 million Americans (and Canadians) of more than 60% of their savings and investments, they do not deserve votes, in fact they deserve to be labelled criminals in my opinion.

Regardless of whether there will be a deal or not at the last minute, markets WILL correct big time and would only START to recover late Q4, either scenario and things WILL be bad, but the lesser would be if a deal is reached than not.

At this point in time it is no longer safe to hold ANY money in banks, especially US dollars, this is a GREAT opportunity for China, Russia and other countries to become first world economies, it took only 2 people, pressured by their own parties to stand their ground and this is the result we will get, a complete destruction of world economy.

As more people lose their f****** jobs, more people will turn online for money, I'd like to say how that pans out when GPT is pretty much dead, off quota 99% of surveys, yeah that will be a blast.

Does ANY US business have a contingency plan ? NO because nobody thinks a default is even possible.

WELL it is, and it will happen - there is no way these 2 dimwits can reach a deal that will pass a bipartisan vote on time before the alleged June 1 deadline. The debt was breached in January, they had all these gd months to reach a damn deal !

So this is a message to all people who are retired, this is a message from your beloved politicians, you worked your entire life to save money for retirement, for your kids, etc, well tough luck, all 40-50 of your working years down the toilet now.

No time for politics right now, BOTH party stink, NONE are worthy of the WASTED INK on the WASTED paper ballot.

SURE it is ok to want spending cuts, all for it, but you don't negotiate spending cuts and budget at gun point (using debt ceiling as blackmail) none of that sh** !!!!!

I'd like to know how any US or world business owner is sleeping at night, the entire GPT and rewards industry including all eCommerce sites use US currency - how in the world is business expected to continue with a currency that will be worth nothing overnight.........
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#2 by tasman1 » Tue May 23, 2023 21:07

Dear friend please never worry about U.S.A. They will print many more zillions , it will be not first time
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#3 by Darkstar2 » Tue May 23, 2023 21:11

tasman1 wrote: Dear friend please never worry about U.S.A. They will print many more zillions , it will be not first time

Really you are so confident - you cannot print zillions without a deal to raise debt limit, that's not how it works, they need a deal signed by congress to allow them to borrow more money they can never repay in a billion years, that's how it works :mrgreen: The whole debt ceiling thing is a big fraud anyway, it's pointless, there is no way in a million years that they will be able to pay their entire debt let alone the interest alone, they will always need to raise the limit - though this bullshit has to stop, they have to pass a bill that allows them to raise the ceiling as needed, without holding the entire nation hostage.
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#4 by tasman1 » Tue May 23, 2023 21:19

Darkstar2 wrote:
tasman1 wrote: Dear friend please never worry about U.S.A. They will print many more zillions , it will be not first time

Really you are so confident - you cannot print zillions without a deal to raise debt limit, that's not how it works, they need a deal signed by congress to allow them to borrow more money they can never repay in a billion years, that's how it works :mrgreen: The whole debt ceiling thing is a big fraud anyway, it's pointless, there is no way in a million years that they will be able to pay their entire debt let alone the interest alone, they will always need to raise the limit - though this bullshit has to stop, they have to pass a bill that allows them to raise the ceiling as needed, without holding the entire nation hostage.



All will be done in time, this is not first time , In western world we understand that our debt can not be repaid ever , in short we understand that 100 trillion debt or trillion trillion debt is same , can NOT be paid ever

They just playing with debt ceiling with our nerves , it is kind of circus
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#5 by tomekelson » Wed May 24, 2023 07:35

As it is the dollar, which is the currency that circulates the most worldwide, the loss will be enormous, but as always the USA will solve the problem, this is not the first time that this has happened.
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#6 by Darkstar2 » Wed May 24, 2023 08:57

Not the first time there is a standoff, that is true, BUT this time is different, look at the numbers in house and senate,look at the political agendas in both parties, it would be a long shot if not impossible to get a bipartisan deal - previous debt ceiling clashes were similar BUT did not have as many disagreements and obstacles over this one, this one is possibly the worse due to BOTH sides having a massive agendas - if you look at the previous times it was mainly a show until the end, this time it is VERY different - The GOP wants so badly to tarnish Democrats and destroy Biden,s reelection for 2nd term, and Democrats want to do the INSANE thing o raising taxes when they have ton of revenues, so GOP disagrees strongly with that, and rightfully so. OK, GOP might succeed in destroying Biden's reelection, but what they are doing is NOT ok, because they are holding the entire world economy hostage over some political rivalry - If there is a debt and world crisis, I don't think that helps Republicans any more either. Here is what I think will happen, there is no way a deal can be made and voted by June 1, if really June 1 is the limit, I do not believe America will default exactly on June 1, they probably can go on for a while, and a deal WILL eventually be reached BUT not before the deadline - markets will react and tumble meanwhile, GOP wants NO concessions, so Biden will have to cut spending and make some concessions, but he is getting pressure not to, from his own party, and GOP's leader getting pressure from his party........... NOT GOOD.

I think debt ceiling won't be raised on time, it WILL for sure, it has to eventually, could take weeks, months, who knows, after the deadline but it will be too late, damage done, and even if they raise limit, markets will be extremely volatile, at least for another year !

This is the problem when you have House and Senate divided...... It's better to have either Democrats take full control or GOP. I do agree that Biden should cut spending, and not raise taxes, BUT I also strongly disagree that GOP is using debt ceiling as a way to extort and hold hostage an entire nation and possibly the entire world. Biden is in my opinion one of the WORST Presidents - he got elected based on the fact he came across as being the good negotiator, being the person to score bipartisan deals, and unite even with his opponents. None of that ! He did none of that. Whatever happens deal or no deal, odds of him winning 2nd term are pretty much nil. The GOP must find another candidate for 2024, to win STRONG popular votes and gain back full control in the midterms that follow. Lately Trump has been shooting himself in the foot and he even said he'd prefer to see America default - not exactly a good way to gain votes. He ASSUMES Biden will cave in at the last minute - I don't think Biden will, he will just use this opportunity to later blame Republicans and use that as leverage during his reelection campaign - hopefully people don't fall for his BS a second time around.

AND if / when they raise debt ceiling, for how long, the same shit will happen again in a few months.

Whatever happens I hope Biden does not invoke the 14th, he will make matters even worse !!!

Besides I'm being serious, whether there is a deal or no deal, I think the US dollar will take a BIG hit this year,
a lesser hit if a deal comes soon, and quite a MASSIVE HIT otherwise - I have seen the Canadian dollar actually exceed the USD before, it can happen again. One thing for sure, people should not panic right now BUT it is always a good idea to have some cash reserves, ideally is to sell off high, and buy again low. If people can somehow manage to sell off now, and markets eventually tumble 30-50% or more (which will happen) it will be a repeat of 2008 and worse, then they can buy the dip, markets will eventually gain back some, and investors who did that will have made profit.
I believe Bitcoin will crash as well. Panic is not good, BUT being ready and taking measures, making right decisions is way to go. Selling off stock, I encourage, panic is where people start withdrawing all their cash from bank, and stop using US dollar ........ I think markets will be hit far worse, USD will take a hit and recover once a deal is eventually reached, MARKETS on the other hand will take longer, I think markets could take a year minimum recover because now a recession is near certain (a moderate one depending on how long it takes for a deal or interest rate hikes).

NOW had Trump been in power instead of Biden and with divided House and Senate, we would have seen the SAME situation - the Democrats would have made demands, Trump would have refused to make ANY concessions ...... SO yeah, not even Trump can save the day when it comes to this debt ceiling crap ! If it were PM Justin Trudeau boy would he have caved in a long time ago :lol:
Last edited by Darkstar2 » Wed May 24, 2023 09:05 » edited 2 times in total
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#7 by valerie » Wed May 24, 2023 21:57

It's just the usual bs. They have to deal before the 1st of the month.
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#8 by Darkstar2 » Thu May 25, 2023 19:09

valerie wrote: It's just the usual bs. They have to deal before the 1st of the month.

I'm sure GOP is willing to let default happen just for politics and just to sabotage Biden's Presidency. Remember during the time Republicans were in power and had full control, they raised debt ceiling 3 times without a fight. This time it is clearly different there are many elements on BOTH sides that were never present before, SO YES this time it IS possible that there is no deal by June 1st - DEAL or NO DEAL it's too late markets will tumble for the rest of the year, they will get downgraded their credit rating just like in 2011. So it's too late. The ONLY way there can be a deal is if Biden caves in to the GOP, and then the debt ceiling becomes a far right deal and victory for GOP and defeat for Biden, OR Biden can refuse to cave and stand his ground, and default happens - THEN economy goes down to shit, THEN they both end up making concessions and make a deal a few weeks later, raise the ceiling, but it will be too late, credit rating will go down, millions of jobs lost, markets down. Look at the stock market now, 4 consecutive days of drop. Not good.

I expect the US dollar not to be worth much, it could lose as much as 20% of its value by June 1st if no deal is reached.
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#9 by tasman1 » Thu May 25, 2023 19:29

Darkstar2 wrote:
valerie wrote: It's just the usual bs. They have to deal before the 1st of the month.

I'm sure GOP is willing to let default happen just for politics and just to sabotage Biden's Presidency. Remember during the time Republicans were in power and had full control, they raised debt ceiling 3 times without a fight. This time it is clearly different there are many elements on BOTH sides that were never present before, SO YES this time it IS possible that there is no deal by June 1st - DEAL or NO DEAL it's too late markets will tumble for the rest of the year, they will get downgraded their credit rating just like in 2011. So it's too late. The ONLY way there can be a deal is if Biden caves in to the GOP, and then the debt ceiling becomes a far right deal and victory for GOP and defeat for Biden, OR Biden can refuse to cave and stand his ground, and default happens - THEN economy goes down to shit, THEN they both end up making concessions and make a deal a few weeks later, raise the ceiling, but it will be too late, credit rating will go down, millions of jobs lost, markets down. Look at the stock market now, 4 consecutive days of drop. Not good.

I expect the US dollar not to be worth much, it could lose as much as 20% of its value by June 1st if no deal is reached.



Are you scared that your loss will be 20% .......Here is deal to save you 5%
Send me 5000.00 dollar and I will give you back 4250.00 back , your loss will be only 15% , not 20%
As my friend this deal is valid only for you

Do we have a deal ? :mrgreen:
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#10 by Darkstar2 » Sat May 27, 2023 07:00

WELL GPT will die off, all GPT earn in USD and pay members in USD for the most part, so in order to survive GPTs will have to cut pay rates - get ready for the next transformation in GPT - the removal of direct cash earnings, replacing them with POINTS instead like some sites have done already, complete a survey earn points, exchange points for cash. Earn 10,000 points to cash out $10, average rate for each survey around 10 points :P IMPOSSIBLE you say ? NO, this is how Toluna direct panel works right now, minimum cash out 60,000 points, I quit Toluna for those reasons, they have become a scummy, crummy provider of surveys, they replaced cash with points, and to reach 60,000 points takes forever, when most of their surveys are low 2 digit points. There is no way GPT and rewards site online or ANY business online can survive anymore without drastic changes, if the US currency will no longer be viable, either that or we will all have to start learning Chinese dialects and Russian, what will become the 2 new top powers of the new world economy :P Learning some Korean too will be a good asset :mrgreen:
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#11 by valerie » Sat May 27, 2023 17:58

It's Memorial Day weekend through Monday. So I suspect they will come to some kind of deal by Wednesday, after they sober up.
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#12 by tasman1 » Sat May 27, 2023 18:43

valerie wrote: It's Memorial Day weekend through Monday. So I suspect they will come to some kind of deal by Wednesday, after they sober up.



......and have same problem next year
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#13 by Darkstar2 » Sat May 27, 2023 21:10

valerie wrote: It's Memorial Day weekend through Monday. So I suspect they will come to some kind of deal by Wednesday, after they sober up.

Don't count on it, not your current President - Remember Trump said Democrats are spending like drunken sailors, that's one thing he is right about :lol:

A deal was struck this evening on Saturday, IN PRINCIPLE though, after Biden and McCarthy's week long blow job - I dunno it seems Biden had to make many concessions, only to save his own arse and get re-elected though not for the better of the country, BUT hardline Republicans are upset that they did not get ALL demands through, talk about SHIT politics, when you have a divided Senate and divided Congress, you have to make concessions on both sides. So yeah a deal was reached, now they have to write it and there is the 3 day mandatory review, as you know, and it goes to vote on Wednesday, and already some members of the GOP want to sabotage it, and have threatened to vote against it, in fact it appears that the deal won't hold well with majority of house, which is bad, it's likely on the Senate camp it might be partially rejected, though I suspect in the Senate it will pass by a majority, after all they don't want to sabotage Biden's re-election bid.....But on the House side, it COULD come down to the wire or get rejected by hardline, up the arse, members who don't think the deal is worth a vote, this would be SO bad, wold definitely be bad for McCarthy - it could come down to Congress sabotaging a deal to derail Biden's Presidency - I think that would be a disgusting thing to do - you don't use such an important deal that could change the world, and use it as a weapon to sabotage your opponents - the fact that Trump said he would prefer seeing a default, is really disappointing - If he wins in 2024, the ideal conditions would be a majority Senate and majority House, otherwise if it remains divided on either camp, Trump never gives in, he said so himself he is willing to f*** everyone even if it means a default in order to get what he wants - - so yeah in Canada for situations like these we have other parties to vote for, like the crocodile party, the green party, etc, besides, there is DeSantis in the running too, but he is from Florida, and we all know they can't be trusted and are mostly crazy :mrgreen: Tough choice innit - Maybe the Republicans have a better chance to win, but with a different candidate who knows - but whoever it is God, please, no more of Biden's administration - I think America deserves better than the Bernie Sanders regime, and spending money you don't have, not good.

God help Canada if we had this debt ceiling nonsense, we would have defaulted a long time ago :D
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#14 by Darkstar2 » Sat May 27, 2023 21:13

tasman1 wrote:
valerie wrote: It's Memorial Day weekend through Monday. So I suspect they will come to some kind of deal by Wednesday, after they sober up.



......and have same problem next year

I think the deal is to raise it until 2025, if Trump is in power, you can count on a default, especially that Senate is controlled by Democrats, so it will pretty much be the same crap, except he is more hardline than Biden and does not do concessions, he said so explicitly he'd let the country default. So yeah, what they should do is get rid of the debt ceiling bullshit once and for all. Republicans managed to raise 3 times the ceiling without ANY arguments, it's easier when Senate and House are controlled by the same party in power.
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#15 by tasman1 » Sat May 27, 2023 23:55

Debt ceiling in USA is to low same as ceiling here for non paying survey
Today I have only 2 non paid survey , I demand ceiling to increase to 5 non paying survey per day :?
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#16 by Darkstar2 » Sun May 28, 2023 10:19

tasman1 wrote: Debt ceiling in USA is to low same as ceiling here for non paying survey
Today I have only 2 non paid survey , I demand ceiling to increase to 5 non paying survey per day :?

It's low for a reason you know, we are talking about debt - it's essentially a bill that allows America to spend more money that it does not have. The deal just ADDS more to the debt, but they want to LIMIT the amount each time, as to not encourage over spending (ahahahaha yeah - I know, so let's say instead to LIMIT the overspending). There is no way in billions of years that America can pay off its entire debt, I dunno how the HELL they even manage to borrow money, who would loan money to someone who can never repay even the bloody interests ?

Republicans are against abortion, they want spending cuts, I agree, they want a nice big wall, I agree 2000%, but allowing for unwanted babies to be born to rape and have that child subject to poor treatment and leading a miserable life, possibly turning to crime later on, I do not think the world needs this, I think abortion should be allowed under those circumstances - NOT as a way to f*ck around and use it as birth control but in very specific instances - Let's see now the hypocrisy of Republicans who want cuts in spending - how much did they spend for a fraudulent war in the Middle East that resulted in no change and in fact a worse situation ? Both sides of the political spectrum should be a damn shamed of themselves, they both have done wrong in many areas. Even though the debt ceiling thing should be done with, it's there to put a break - when the ceiling is breached, it's a time out and discuss changes, which is a one monstrous joke in the end, because they never can cut enough - the waste is still there, to begin with why don't they abolish COMPLETELY the space program, it is a giant scam - it is grand robbery - who gives a shit about space and aliens and other bloody planets we can never live on - not worth spending trillions of $ - instead that money should be better spent here on this planet - if there is one area to cut it's there, next area, international help - it's one thing to help other countries, but enough is enough, you gotta help your own first, you cannot spend billions of $ that you don't have !!!! TRAVEL, why have politicians travel abroad and spend tax dollars money ? We have technology, high speed internet and video conferencing, use it !!! Incarceration - it is paid for by the tax payer !!! It costs an average of $50k or even more per person, ridiculous, all this should be paid for by convict - and if they cannot afford it, then it is paid for by the state. oh and someone who killed, raped, or did a crime that warrants them a death sentence, they get to choose their last meal, anything they want..REALLY ????????????? There are billions of people who are starving to death, who are eating 1 meal every other day, can barely afford half a loaf of bread - and yet you have death row inmates chowing down steaks, lobsters, pancakes, etc ?

The whole Biden and McCarthy thing is a damn circus act - they have done NOTHING where it matters the most.

The COVID19 relief money, which is probably the biggest mistake that has triggered this persistent inflation in the first place - when you look back, it would have been better to go through an economical slowdown and recession during the pandemic, and inflation would at least stay in check, even a 2 year recession would have been better than this inflation MADNESS right now !

The Dems have done so many mistakes, and the GOP has done so many themselves too - HYPOCRITES on both sides of the fence, putting on a good circus show putting on a last minute deal in the end that benefits nobody because politicians are what they are, corrupt and greedy, and in the end nothing will change... This deal is not for the country, it is for each part's own political agenda.

Watch out investors - don't be fooled by the relief rally - the stocks are going to plummet shortly after.

1) Hot inflation data - the Fed reserve lost control, and interest hikes are not working to tame inflation.
2) The debt was breached since JANUARY and sine then Treasury has used extraordinary measures to pay the bills and pretty much has gone through its reserve. Money doe snot grow on trees, they have to recover these funds !

I do not think markets have priced in persistent inflation, war uncertainty and the real risks ahead, so I see markets correcting not long after the relief rally - BUT at least if a default is avoided through a vote (which is yet to come), that will LIMIT the damage, but I believe due to the VIX being so low, given the current context, it signals that the markets are ripe for a big correction - I'd say in the order of maybe 15-20%, unless there is data suggesting inflation is cooling off, which is NOT the case right now, it's still too hot.

SO YEAH, let's continue spending trillions of $ to look for mysterious statues on Mars, or to look for the wall at the edge of the universe, or to look for aliens, good idea ! :D
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#17 by Orangecandy841 » Sun May 28, 2023 11:02

I am a bit worried after reading all this
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#18 by valerie » Mon May 29, 2023 21:33

Don't be worried. It's the same ole same ole in American politics.
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#19 by Darkstar2 » Wed May 31, 2023 19:00

Well I dunno what voodoo tricks McCarthy pulled, but he managed to get the required minimum 218 Republicans to vote to pass, the bill passed by WIDE margin, 314 to 117, far more than the minimum required. Of course Bernie Sanders vote NO, he's a nut case, so no surprise there. So all that is left now is for Senate to pass the bill, and I think that is a certainty it will pass - it would be a major blow to Biden if Senate fails to pass the bill.

Now something disappointed me BIG time, Trump's comment on tonight's bill - instead of being happy it passed, he made some stupid comment that if he were President, he'd let the country default and never agree to make concessions. Not exactly the kind of words to say if you plan on actually winning an election - for his idiotic remarks alone, I do not believe he should win in 2024 - no President should EVER make THREATS like that - it's basically admitting that they would sabotage the whole world economy and DESTROY America's economy, NOT GOOD, I though Trump knew better. Although I would agree with Trump that there needs to be more spending cuts, I do not think they should use the debt ceiling as a weapon, so yeah 2 things need to happen, either Democrats win and gain back FULL control, Senate and House........OR Republicans win and gain back FULL control of Senate and House, but a Republican winning alongside a divided House and Senate is bad news..........It's easy for Trump to say such atrocious shit, he has all his money stashed away in China, so if America defaults and USD is worth 0 over night, no problem, he can resign and go jump into Xi Jinping's arms :mrgreen: Biden is/was a train wreck, don't think he should win either, so yeah this needs to be a Republican win with full control :D
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#20 by tasman1 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 00:31

Debt ceiling fixed in USA

Biden .... ho ho ho ho , we are going now for shopping spree , we are OK now for one month
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