chefkang wrote:Deutriex wrote: Every member has a in 400 chance to win something in ClixGrid (If it got unchanged)LOL
A Premium member has 60 chances a day to try to win a prize,
Winning odds = 1/400
Not winning odds = 399/400
Not winning odds after 60 clicks (1 day) as a Premium member = (399/400)^60 ~= 86%
.: Winning odds after 60 clicks (1 day) as a Premium member ~= 14%
Not winning odds after a week as a Premium member = [(399/400)^60]^7 ~= 35%
.: Winning odds after a week as a Premium member ~= 65%
Not winning odds after a month as a Premium member = [(399/400)^60]^30 ~= 1%
.: Winning odds after a month as a Premium member ~= 99%
keep clicking, because you will get your prize soon!
What you wrote is a perfect example of the Gambler's fallacy and it's completely wrong.
The odds to win will be always 1/400 and the probability to win is always 0.25% and never will be 14% or 65% or 99% as you wrote
Flipping a coin has always 50% probability to give you head or tails.
So, let's say that we flip a fair coin for heads or tails and we we get 4 heads in a row.
If the next result was head again it would give us five heads in a row.
Because the probability to get 5 heads in a row is only 3.125%, someone might believe that the next flip is less likely to be heads than to be tails. But this is completely false because 5 heads in a row and 4 heads and then a tail are equally likely and each one of them has the same 3.125% probability to happen.
To simplify it every time you click in clixgrid you have 399/400 or 99.75% to lose and only 1/400 or 0.25% to win and that's all
Actually, you're both incorrect.
You can't place odds on a count that is different from day to day in addition
to your lack of knowledge as to how ClixSense has it set up exactly.