Gold as at an all time high - Don't be fooled by the bull streak on the markets right now - The DOW is way over valuated, the numbers right now are just insane, it's like people are in denial and clinging to false hopes, all fueled by snake oil merchants that tout hopes for vaccines and cures which won't happen now or anytime soon. People who think that the DOW gaining back most of its losses in April and May is a good sign, think again - the shit is going to hit the fan and hit it hard soon now that America has gone bonkers and want to re-open states even though their cases and deaths are SOARING !!! Same for Canada, some provinces are soaring and yet they want to re-open, where 50-70% of idiots don't follow distancing guidelines nor wear masks the tossers.... We are smack in the middle of a big recession, the unemployment is sky rocket and unprecedented, the financial results are HORRIBLE, companies are dropping like dead flies and going bankrupt - how the hell could the markets be so high, it's definitely over inflated - I would expect a BIG correction soon and testing of new lows - This will happen when the idiots who decided to re-open, alongside the idiots who do not follow the rules to avoid spread, will face a new reality - the virus spread coming back for a second round, but this time fiercer, and this time CRUSHING the already fragile health care system, forcing a lock down and a situation even worse than before, which means it will likely require a lockdown for at least 4-6 more months, and this time no question about it, it will be a great depression scenario and no TRILLIONS of $ from the Fed's monopoly money will do any good. I I would not be surprised to see the DOW plunge down below 17,000 and gold breaking 2k before the end of the year.
And this big correction is bound to happen soon, maybe as early as this month or next, but the bubble WILL explode.
If your entire portfolio is in stocks, you are basically f***** ! The ONLY and I mean ONLY true hope for a market and economy recovery is positive news on a vaccine (which will not happen for likely 1-2 years or more) OR a temporary treatment to drastically reduce mortality and severity of infection or even shield against it temporarily........Otherwise, eventually investors will wake up to reality - right now what is fueling the markets is the fake news and false hope.
China and other countries are testing treatment and temporary immunisation using antibodies of cured patients, it seems to get positive results so far, it may be our only hope for a temporary plan before a vaccine, and if successful it could happen as early as end of year to new year. However a vaccine would be very unlikely to come out sooner, and 12 to 18 months would already be an unusually fast race for a vaccine.
I think we are more likely to come up with antibody treatments long before a vaccine - that's the only hope right now, but meanwhile I think the economy and markets will crash and reach new lows, before they go back up again, but slowly. I thin this will be a U shaped recession, but it could very well be an L shaped one if there is no treatment hope by the end of the year and trailing onto 2021 and beyond.
Those who believe I am not reasonable with assessment, simply provide counter arguments against it, I'd like to rea dthem.
In 2008, during the financial crisis, markets eventually dropped down by more than 57%, mind you this time it is NOT a financial crisis, YET, but you'd think that a world pandemic and economy collapse would also bring the markets down by that much. Right now the markets are clinging to hope and re-opening, but once the second wave hits hard as early as summer or fall, watch out, chances are you will be spending xmas in confinement at home and find new excuses to tell your kids as to why Santa did not come to deliver the gifts this year.........
What's worse than the COVID19 ? FALSE HOPE. It's good to have some hopes, realistic ones, not some snake oil merchant, pill peddling leaders who tout dangerous treatments that were not even proven, or for biopharmas to tout their so-called miracle vaccine, just to please the markets and President, even though they know themselves that realistically it will take years for an effective vaccine.
So the whole market is just a game of deceit. Unfortunately with big mouth Obama, touting his complete nonsense, would have kept the DOW stagnating at 19k-20k, apparently he's not as good with hand jobs. I don't know if Joe Biden can manage to keep the DOW soaring, probably not, but it can't be worse than Bernie Sanders . If Trump wins and there is an antibody treatment by January or early next year, I would expect the DOW to soar above 30,000, and even reach 35,000 and above, in 2021. If Biden wins, regardless of the outcome I think the DOW will take a beating, will likely lose 10-20% of its value.